2015 Real Estate Predictions

Our end of the year newsletter is packed with statistics for December, predictions for 2015, and an overview of 2014 as compared to 2013. Stable, consistent, normal increases are all descriptions for the current Abilene market.

I enjoy reading the predictions and then watching the actual occurrences. The 2014 Fannie Mae predictions were inaccurate while others performed as predicted. There are two predictions for 2015 that I continually see and I think will prove to be true.

These are from Forbes:

Rent increases will outpace home value growth: In 2015 many 25- 34-year-olds (Millennials) will form new households, but instead of buying they’ll rent, predicts Trulia’s Kolko. In part, this forecast is based on demographic factors (marriage, kids, cited above) and in part it’s because many of them will still need to save for a down payment. These factors will continue to push the demand for multi-family housing –and rents will keep rising. In fact, Humphries forecasts that rents will rise 3.5% in 2015, outpacing his predicted 2.5% for annual home price gains. This, in turn, may push some of those Millennials to become buyers. “As renters’ costs keep going up, I expect the allure of fixed mortgage payments and a more stable housing market will entice many more otherwise content renters into the housing market,” Humphries says.

Millennials will overtake Gen X as homebuyers: By the end of 2015, Millennials (those under the age of 35) will overtake Gen X (35-50 years old) to become the largest group of homebuyers in the U.S., predicts Zillow’s Humphries. “Roughly 42% of Millennials say they want to buy a home in the next one to five years, compared to just 31% of Generation X,” he says. “The lack of home-buying activity from Millennials thus far is decidedly not because this generation isn’t interested in homeownership, but instead because younger Americans have been delaying getting married and having children, two key drivers in the decision to buy that first home. As this generation matures, they will become a home-buying force to be reckoned with.”

Meet the Fenn Group!

An incredible moment for a mother is to learn your sons want to follow in your footsteps professionally. I had the privilege of raising identical twins, Alex and Stewart, who since early childhood had a strong focus and work ethic. Both completed high school a semester early and are currently working towards a bachelor degree. At 20 years old, they are also licensed Texas REALTORS.

Within the first month of being licensed each had a customer base to begin and properties under contract. They have proven that hard work, follow up and consistency are keys to success.

I asked each to share their thoughts on being licensed and professionals while in college. Stewart shared that “growing up in Destin, FL the beach, surfing and real estate were my way of life. Real Estate has been my family’s profession for many years and really all I’ve ever known. I have childhood recollections of putting out signs and helping my mother in her brokerage. As an adult, it was the perfect fit for my future to join her and my identical twin brother in the industry.”

Outside of work Stewart enjoys cross-country running and game night with family. Upon his move to Texas he immersed himself quickly in the running world and is involved in the Abilene Runner’s Club. Another strong passion for him is teaching and helping others. He accomplished this recently through teaching 8th graders about future life endeavors in the Junior Achievement of Abilene Program.

Alex shared that he feels so fortunate to experience life and the cultures of 3 states. “Louisiana gave me an upbringing in my cajun heritage, Destin, FL introduced me to beach life, and my move to Texas has now enabled me to embrace my family’s roots. Real Estate has been part of my life since I was a small child. It’s been a legacy in my family and dinner conversation daily. Real Estate was innate for me. I began working in our family business as a teenager. At 17 I opened my own cleaning business which was an offshoot of my mother’s brokerage. I cleaned her clients condos and homes as people moved in and out.
My mother and I had an opportunity in Abilene to work for Coldwell Banker Panian and Mash and our move to Texas was consummated. This relocation was easy since I spent my summers at my grandparent’s ranch in the Hill Country of Texas. I became the Social Networking Specialist for the company.”

The Fenn Group understands the complexities of buying a permanent, second and/or investment property. We want to assure you that we will be with you every step of the way, handling every detail possibly. This is not a part-time job for us. We are full-time focused Realtors!

Distressed Sellers are now Boomerang Buyers

It seems we always have a new catch phrase or industry jargon ….. short sales, REOs, buyer’s market…… and now it’s Boomerang Buyers.  You are going to start hearing more about this buying group and I’m hoping to share a bit of insight with you too.

CNN Money is reporting that 4.8 million borrowers have lost their homes to foreclosures and 2.2 million to short sales since the bubble burst.  Many are now starting to bounce back.

I was one of the first agents in our area to work short sales – I closed my first listed short sale in 2007.  We had no training of it then, very little talk of it, and I bonded with a negotiator in Countrywide who worked with me until the merger with Bank of America.  My training was boots on the ground with short sales!  From that time, Lisa and I have helped many people with short sales to avoid foreclosures.

We started to do a bit of homework on our market’s history.  Our local market consists heavily of residential and 2^nd homes/investment properties.  It appears from the numbers that 2011 was the bottom with our single family homes and condos.  However 2009 appears to be bottom for our homes along Hwy 30a – a luxury 2^nd home market.

The boomerang buyer fits in to the equation in that these buyers represent those former homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure or short sale.  The heaviest years for these sale types were 2009-2012.  The borrowers who dealt with either of these in the earlier years are now possibly in position to purchase again.  We are seeing many lenders and volume home builders now setting up programs to help these individuals in credit repair.

A foreclosure is going to set a person back further in the recovery years than a short sale will.  It is apparently taking 3-7 years to recover however we are seeing some who sold their property as a short sale buy again within 2 years.

I was in a closing last week where the buyers were purchasing a $249,000 home in Niceville, FL.  The average home in Niceville is about $260,000 and it is a Seller’s Market.  Homes move quick and homes for rent are hard to find. In comparison to this home it would rent for about $2000 per month.  This couple purchasing with taxes and insurance will be paying $1300 per month.  A considerable difference to renting.

Even though the bottom was probably in 2011, we have remained stable to those 2011 numbers with modest increases in some areas.  We have been faced with a loss of value of 10 years back!  These prices may not ever, and we pray not, return to the 2005 appreciation increase levels but at some point we will begin to steadily and properly gain appreciation.

We have so many buyers in the market currently – those who want to live here due to our incredible schools & beaches, military transfers, smart investors, and ….. the 2009 & 2010 distressed sellers who are now 2013 & 2014 potential buyers!   AND just like a boomerang – they are back!

by: Robbie Fenn & Lisa Norton

Lisa Norton & Robbie Fenn In Washington DC lobbying for property owners and attending a Real Estate Conference

Realtors, Broker Associates, and Sales Managers for Coldwell Banker United, Realtors.  Both have been named Destin and Ft Walton Beach Realtor of the Year – 2 years each. If you would like more information on the market give Robbie & Lisa a call at 850-897-5366

Seller Confidence in Real Estate is Returning

Seller confidence is evident across the country and evident right here on the Emerald Coast.….

From Navarre through 30A to just above I-10 – about a 90 mile stretch of beaches and 30 miles north you will find 2630 homes for sale and of these of only 328 are distressed (short sales or foreclosures).  In this same stretch, we have 1347 Condos to choose from and only 73 are distressed.

Let’s take Niceville, Destin/Miramar Beach homes and condos, and 30a homes to demonstrate what I’m speaking of.  These 4 markets mirror in some areas, and not in others but all equal in one thing…..demand in March that is starting a month over month

The Emerald Coast!!!

carry over.  This is always my favorite evaluation to monitor.

 Niceville Homes:  There’s currently less than 6 months of inventory – remaining consistent as a Seller’s Market!  The average sale price has risen.  Of the 45 homes sold, 21 obtained VA loans, 13 were conventional loans, and 6 paid cash.  The 6 who paid cash got on average an extra 7% off the list price.  The average home sold at 2.3% off list for the month.  Only 4 sales were distressed properties.

Destin/SanDestin Homes: March ended with only 7 months of inventory – so close to being a balanced market. The average sale price has risen overall.  Of the 66 homes sold 17 were distressed, 8 obtained VA loans, 31 were conventional loans, and 23 paid cash.  The 6 who paid cash bought on average of $782,000.  The average home sold at 6.5% off list for the month.

 30a Homes: 8 months of inventory ended March. The average sale price has a pattern of varying between 700K-950K.  Of the 61 homes sold 6 were distressed, 35 were conventional loans, and 17 paid cash.  The 17 who paid cash bought on average of $828,000.  The average home sold at 7% off list for the month.

 Destin/SanDestin Condos: March ended with only 9.5 months of inventory.  The average sale price has risen overall.  Of the 89 condos sold 12 were distressed, 22 were conventional loans, and 55 paid cash – that’s incredible!  The average condo sold at 8% off list for the month.

The average sale in condos for March was $331,000.  I am proud to announce that the largest sale of the month was $1,350,000 – and not only did Coldwell Banker United list this fabulous condo, but Coldwell Banker United SOLD it!!!

The trend of Seller Confidence is evident across the country and 2 great articles for you to reference can be found at Seller Confidence Brightens and March 2013 Real Estate Data.

If you are ready to put your property on the market or know someone who is, then please give Robbie & Lisa a call today.  If you are looking to purchase property or know someone who is, give us a call today.

We look forward to hearing from you soon!

Robbie Fenn & Lisa Norton      Broker Associates/Sales Managers Coldwell Banker United, Realtors  850-897-4563

Let us open the door to your successful real estate experience!

Multiple Offers….Cash Is King! Let’s discuss the Destin Florida Area Market!

Multiple Offers ……. Cash is King

Let’s discuss offers on the Emerald Coast!

Crystal Beach in Destin

Those seem to be the two themes for February.  Multiple offers have been with us again for a bit  since the bust of the market but I wanted to share some local market insight as to possibly why.

Let’s take Niceville, Navarre, Ft Walton Beach, Destin/Miramar Beach homes to demonstrate what I’m speaking of.  These 4 market areas mirror in some areas, and not in others but all equal in one thing…..demand in February that appears to be carrying over to March.  I am anxious to do this evaluation again next month.

Niceville year-to-year comparison:  There’s less than 6 months of inventory – that’s a Seller’s Market!  There are about 70 less homes to choose from than last year – Inventory is dropping with less to choose from….. Multiple offers come in to play!  The average sale price has risen.  Of the 37 homes sold, 19 obtained VA loans, 8 were conventional loans, and 5 paid cash.  The 5 who paid cash got on average an extra 5% off the list price.  Cash prevailed!  With only 1 short sale and 2 foreclosures of the 37 that closed…..Cash was easy to be King!

Ft Walton Beach and Navarre year-to-year comparison:  Combined we closed 122 homes – 33 were conventional loans, 30 were cash, and 47 were VA loans.  Cash had a slight advantage on getting a better percent off of list price so it prevailed as King!  I think the reason we saw the cash sales only having a modest edge is because these are the markets that saw higher closings in distressed properties – 24 closings were foreclosed properties and 19 were short sales.

Individually….

Navarre dropped to a Balanced market – which is about 6 months of inventory, their prices inched up a bit, and there are about 150 less homes to choose from…..demand is created which results in multiple offers.

Ft Walton Beach showed only 4 months of inventory!  Now that’s a Seller’s Market!  Their inventory has dropped also with 90 less homes to choose from….again demand is created which results in multiple offers.

Destin/Miramar Beach including SanDestin Resort year-to-year comparison:   we closed 46 homes in February – equal to last year BUT our average price sold increased by almost $30,000.   Of those sold, 25 were conventional loans and 12 were cash.  Cash was King!  Those 12 sales got on average 15% off list price!!! At this point there are only 56 homes priced under $300,000 which has always been a magic point for Destin…… demand is created which results in multiple offers.

Boat traveling into the Harbor from the East Pass

The $300,000 and under price point allows families to move to Destin who otherwise couldn’t afford to, and it’s an appealing arena for investors.

Of the 46 homes closed only 2 were foreclosed properties and 1 was a short sale.    This could be why cash prevailed so heavily.  Our inventory year to year has dropped by about 100 homes, and with steady sales, our months of inventory to sell has dropped as well.

These are only a few of the market segments but a good idea of the trend we are seeing.  We are not just telling you that we are in multiple offer situations to pressure you….it’s the reality of our market currently.  For a listing agent, it can become a juggling act with the Seller’s asking for the Buyer’s at the table to give their highest and best offer.

It’s our job to provide as much information as possible for you to make your decision on what and how to offer.   Review the statistics on the following pages and let me know what questions you may have or if you would like properties specific to your needs/desires emailed to you.

It’s a great time to buy – interest rates are low and our prices still resemble many years back and stable.  If you are ready to buy or sell – please give us a call – 850-496-2150 or 850-621-4525.

Robbie Fenn and Lisa Norton

Coldwell Banker United, Realtors Sales Managers/Broker Associates

Real Estate Divorce Specialists – the FIRST in the Florida Panhandle

Your Paradise Group is proud to announce that Broker Owner, Robbie Fenn, has earned the Certified Real Estate Divorce Specialist.  Robbie is the first and ONLY specialist in the FloridaPanhandle – and soon to follow is her business partner, Lisa Norton. They join over 130 dedicated professionals within this niche market within the USA and Canada.  In addition to becoming a Certified Real EstateDivorce Specialist, Robbie also holds a certification in Loss Mitigation, in the unfortunate event a Short Sale is needed to be negotiated.

Turbulent economic times often put divorceson the rise.  Realizing this need, and having lived through contentious divorces themselves, Robbie and Lisa pursued this certification to provide greater assurances to divorcing clients.    “This certification gave us a full understanding of the interaction between the Realtor, Certified Financial Divorce Planner and the attorney  and how all work for the parties involved while still remaining sensitive to the situation and emotions” Robbie stated.    “Divorcing couples are going through one ofthe most stressful times in their lives, and they need knowledgeable help.”  Lisa stated.  The training gave this team an advantagethat can now be provided to you.

Divorce can be both an emotional drain and financially devastating, but, the rest of your life is still ahead of you.  Let Robbie and Lisa show you how much closer you can be toa better tomorrow.

Choose Your Paradise Group – the first and only team in the Florida Panhandle trained to handle your needs.

 

There’s a New Show in Town!

Best Friends, Realtors of the Year, and Business Partners – Robbie Fenn and Lisa Norton – have done, and do, so much together and opening their own Real Estate Firm began a new journey for them.

When asked what contributes to their drive both answered that putting their customers needs first is their biggest proponent.  Their focus is completely on the customer from even naming their firm, Your Paradise Group – which translates to, It’s All About You!

Your Paradise Group is a boutique real estate firm.  It is a combination of all women who are focused, full-time Realtors and all have additional specialty training ranging from International Clientele to Resort  Real Estate.  Robbie and Lisa are the Broker Owners of Your Paradise Group.

Robbie and Lisa go even further.  Robbie has been named Destin Realtor of the Year (2 years) and Lisa named Ft Walton Beach Realtor Year.  They are both immediate past Presidents of the Emerald Coast Chapter Women’s Council of Realtors where Lisa was named Realtor Member of the Year and Robbie named Entrepreneur of the Year.  Robbie recently became a National Speaker when she spoke on International Real Estate in Washington DC at the National Women’s Council of Realtors Conference.  The Women’s Council of Realtors is the 12^th largest Women’s professional organization in the nation. They are both actively involved also in their local Realtor Association currently serving elected terms on the Board of the Directors.

Both say that being involved in their industry increases the opportunity for selling their customers property.  People do business with people who they like and know – and it’s no exception in real estate.  Robbie and Lisa have mentored many agents throughout their career and from their honors are valued in their industry.  This in turn directly affects their business in a very positive manner.

Work ethic is where they mirror, but knowledge is where they differ and what a great combination for their buyers and sellers.  Robbie brought a strong Resort, Condominium, Marketing & Investment portfolio, while Lisa’s sturdy ability is in Military buyers, Subdivision Development & Marketing.  Both have aggressive backgrounds in listing properties to put a Sold sign in the yard!  The combination of their knowledge, education, extreme respect for the other, and business principles has made this one of the top teams on the Emerald Coast.

Their latest adventure has been the formation of their own weekly television show on 30A TV, channel 8.  “Life at the Beach” showcases the many outstanding properties Your Paradise Group has been asked to market as well as a look at the Emerald Coast and what it has to offer.

http://30atelevision.com/play.php?vid=1755

 

 

 

As for the future, their goal is to continue the service of making their customers the ultimate focus,  staying politically connected with Tallahassee and DC to continue fighting for property rights, and remaining on the cutting edge of innovation for those they represent.